| 1.30 HANDICAP (6) (D.I) (3YR +) 6f |
| | Horse |
| 62 | SWALLOW FOREST |
| 48 | WESTWOOD |
| 46 | HAMAASY |
| 31 | EVERYTHING |
| 27 | THE GEESTER |
| 21 | SCRUFFY SKIP |
| 14 | DOUBLE CARPET |
| 11 | SOBA JONES |
| -1 | THE LITTLE FIZZER |
| -9 | WOQOODD |
| -12 | TADLIL |
| -15 | SANDIES CHOICE |
| -36 | DUCAL REGANCY RED |
The above race was from Southwell 09/12/08
Remember these are just examples of what to look out for. This is not a horse racing tipster service, it is however a horse racing ratings service that can help you produce better profits.
In this above example we hit the bookies for six or betfair layers for 48!!! hope it wasn't the same person who laid me 21.00 for a place the other day... As you can see there are 3 horses rated over 40, and as you might guess these are the ones that I look out for, even more so when only one of them is rated over 60. It was time for a big each way bet @ 33/1 and a small win & place bet @ 48 & 9.8, I would have had a place bet on one of the others if the prices had been big enough, so I just had a combo-tricast on the top 3 paying £390 to a £1 stake.
Result - Swallow Forest (25/1 won), Westwood (9/4 2nd), Hamaasy (11/2 3rd).
| 1.00 HANDICAP (6)(3YR +) 1M 0f |
| | Horse |
| 69 | GENERAL FEELING |
| 43 | PICCOLO DIAMANTE |
| 32 | STAR STRIDER |
| 32 | AEGEAN PRIDE |
| 32 | MRS JEFFERSON |
| 27 | UNDER FIRE |
| 18 | LANCASTER LAD |
| 16 | OVER TO YOU BERT |
| 12 | TILSWORTH CHARLIE |
| 10 | NORCROFT |
| 9 | UPSTAIRS |
| -29 | YAKAMA |
The above race was from Lingfield 07/12/08
A race with a strong bias towards the positive rated horses, this would be an ideal race to lay negative rated horses, if below 14.00 on betfair, the negative horse here (Yakama) is over that price and is therefore NOT a lay. I did therefore consider the prices of the horses rated below a positive rating of 20, but for a lay I would require two of them to lay at odds coupled under 7.00 only two qualified for a coupled price of roughly 5.8. Both came unplaced.
My next bet was to check if the top rated horses place odds were fair to its place chance. Knowing that anything above 1.8 is fair for 3 places on a 65+ clear rated horse, i duly took the odds against and watch the bet scrape home for 3rd.
Result - Star Strider wins (6/1 SP), Yakama 2nd (16/1 bookies SP), General Feeling 3rd (8/1 SP)
| 12.50 NOVICES' HURDLE (3) (4YR +) 2M 0f 110yrds |
| | Horse |
| 86 | CLAY HOLLISTER |
| 49 | COMKILRED CHAMP |
| 39 | QUIVER HILL |
| 33 | BLAZING DESERT |
| 31 | WORLD SHIFT |
| 28 | MASSINI MOON |
| 18 | NATIVE BOB |
| 17 | DIGGER GETS LUCKY |
| 10 | KING OF CASTILE |
| 1 | LUCKY PARKER |
| 1 | MURPHY |
| -10 | BOB 'N' YOU |
| -16 | CASH FOR HONOURS |
| -38 | COURT PRINCESS |
The race above was from Sandown 06/12/08
At first glance it looks a strong bias for positive rated horses and the top rated been clear takes the eye. The 3/1 on offer at the bookies seems value to me about the top rated and both the 2nd and 3rd rated offer value in the place market. I have two small place bets on them, to make a slight profit and back the clear top rated quite big. For laying i only considered horses rated 10 and below at odds under 14.00. One stood out @ 6.2 Cash For Honours was the confident lay and was duly sunk.
Result - Clay Hollister (9/4 won), Quiver Hill (9/2 2nd), Blazing Desert (12/1 3rd).
Cash For Honours & the 2nd rated were unplaced.
| 3.40 NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (3) (3YR +) 2M 0f 110yrds |
| | Horse |
| 57 | BILLIE MAGERN |
| 54 | BRING IT ON HOME |
| 50 | KADOUCHSKI |
| 50 | PTERODACTYL |
| 37 | SPARTAN PLACE |
| 36 | KARKY SCHULTZ |
| 32 | FREDO |
| 28 | QUADDICK LAKE |
| 12 | ROCKITEER |
| 9 | APACHE CHANT |
| -2 | BUFFALO BOB |
| -7 | PRINCE LOUIS |
| -9 | PASSATO |
| 1.20 HANDICAP (E5) (3YR +) 1M 0f |
| Horse |
| 107 | TITAN TRIUMPH |
| 72 | MURRIN |
| 56 | RAMBLING LIGHT |
| 50 | SMOKEY RYE |
| 37 | CARMENERO |
| 26 | STRAIGHT AND LEVEL |
| 18 | BOMBARDIER WELLS |
| 14 | ONENIGHTINLISBON |
| 7 | SAM'S CROSS |
| -8 | IVORY LACE |
| -30 | BRUNELLESCHI |
The race above was from Lingfield 13/10/08
The ratings to the left of the horse name is the conditional rating.
The top rated here I backed at 6.6. The 2nd rated was priced at 8.6, 3rd at 8.4 & 4th at 13.0, the two negative ratings at the bottom odds was 48 & 12 Ivory Lace.
Here I personally have two or three options, maybe a fourth if the place market odds for the 2nd-4th rated are value. I could and did lay Ivory Lace at 13.5; I did this because of the strength of positive ratings against the lack of negative ratings, I . Next I take a look at each ones respected experience & success over the distance, going & course (these are only available through email). I back the clear top rated as I thinks its good value considering that the bookies favourite is Sams Cross at roughly same odds. I then take a good look at the place market & back for a place at 2.44, at this point I don’t fancy having any cash on Murrin but I am happy fot it to run for me against my lay bet. Both the 3rd & 4th rated look fair value for a place bet at 2.74 & 3.45 respectivley.
Result - Clear top rated wins, and two of my place bets get placed (winner & 3rd).
So hopefully you will understand how I look for lays & how I tackle clear top rated.
| 2.20 MAIDEN STAKES (E5) (3YR +) 1M 4f |
| Horse |
| 70 | SIBI SABA |
| 67 | AMHOOJ |
| 37 | MIDDLE OF NOWHERE |
| 11 | DAYIA |
| 4 | EUROCELEB |
| -5 | ARTS GUILD |
| -16 | DELERIOS |
| -38 | EL DIEGO |
I played this race because I was amazed at the top rated horse Sibi Saba odds 8.4, were as the favourites odds Amhooj was 3.25 and getting backed, for me it was to much of a difference considering the chances the favourite has had. Naturally I had a win & place bet on the top rated at those odds. I was considering a lay bet on Art Guild, I did not for two reasons, A) I prefer to lay -15 or worse rated horses, and B) even though the odds was nearly a lay price in my book for the amount of runners to positive ratings I felt the 4th & 5th rated were not strong enough rated for me to consider them on my side.
Result - Top rated wins, Arts Guild 2nd & Amhooj 3rd.